This time tomorrow, Ken Livingstone will be Labour's candidate for London mayor. That means we'll get a re-run of the Ken v Boris Show in 2012, right on the eve of the London Olympics.
Ken is well ahead of rival Oona King, who is already looking beyond this year and saying she'll run again in 2016. He's well on course to be Labour's candidate for the third time running (he was an independent in 2000).
Ken clearly thinks he can win again in 2012. Boris won 53% of the vote in 2008 (including second preferences), polling 1,168,738 votes. Ken got 47% (1,028,966) - 140k votes short. But that was then, when Gordon Brown was dragging down the Labour vote and Boris was a popular novelty.
By May 2012, the Coalition will be well into the 3-year Spending Review period. Cuts will be very real, Cameron & Clegg will be less popular, Miliband (E or D) will be in full flight. Ken will hoping that this cocktail will return him to City Hall. Personally, he will be very keen to preside over the Olympics.
But Boris is in a strong position. He remains very popular - 45% of Londoners say they are most likely to vote for him, way more than Ken (27%) and Oona (9%) combined. And he's even more popular in Outer London, with 52% support.
In 2008, Boris based much of his campaign on an appeal to the Outer Boroughs, and that support is holding firm. His challenge will be to remain popular, once the spending cuts start. If he's to win again, he'll need to distance himself from Cameron and Osborne - which won't be that difficult, if their popularity takes a nosedive.
Now we have a great walkway that goes to the beach and to the canals that came from the partnership of community with government
Posted by: justin bieber supra | 17 October 2011 at 05:31 AM