Thirty years ago, inner-city areas like Brixton, Toxteth, St Paul's and Handsworth became infamous as the flashpoints of Thatcher's Britain. Urban deprivation, racial tension, disproportionate policing were all cited as reasons for the unrest - which cast a shadow over urban Britain for much of the 80s.
Fast forward to this week. At first glance, the latest riots are depressingly familiar. Many of the same places were ablaze last night - but not all (Clapham and Croydon aren't exactly traditional hotbeds of urban blight). As in 1981, the UK is effectively in recession and youth unemployment is relatively high. The trigger point this time was, once again, an incident involving the police.
But the differences are more striking than the similarities. Last night, white and non-white young people were together raiding a bookies on Birmingham's New Street - that's different from 1981.
- First, these riots are not principally about race. Tottenham, Hackney, Clapham and Croydon are much more integrated than in 1981. Yes, the riots are happening in ethnically diverse areas - but they are not race riots.
- Second, the rioters are very young. Many appear to be school-age, and younger than their 1981 counterparts. And they are very mobile, guided by social media - less driven by local community identity. Across London last night, many residents were reporting inflows of teenagers from outside their community. Blackberry seems to be the rioters' gadget of choice.
- Third, the looting appears to be very targeted. JD Sports has been the most frequently raided store. Banks, bookies and furniture stores have also been attacked. But this isn't a G20-style protest against capitalism. It's less politically-motivated than that, and well, more consumerist.
How will the politicians respond?
- Policing: Given how stretched the Met was last night, the Coalition will find it harder to implement its planned cuts to police budgets. Look out for chief constables pushing back on Theresa May over the next few months.
- Youth unemployment: Almost 1 million young people aged 16-24s are currently out of work (that's 1 in 5 of the total). Apprenticeships are the talk of Whitehall, but more urgent and concrete action will be needed to re-engage these young people. I expect a lot more policy movement here.
- Growth: The economy has flatlined for most of the last year. As he approaches his Autumn Statement, George Osborne will come under intense pressure to inject some extra stimulus into the national - and urban - economy.
- Big Society: This is fast looking out of step with urban reality. As Britain's cities burn, Cameron's big project risks further ridicule. Can he re-shape his Big Society as a response to these riots, or will it be overwhelmed by calls for more concrete action?
- Party conferences: All three parties will be holding their annual conferences this autumn in a major city - Lib Dems in Birmingham, Labour in Liverpool, Conservatives in Manchester. I bet all three leaders will do walkabouts in nearby inner-city areas, and come up with new urban policies.
In the 80s, it took Margaret Thatcher six years to declare "we must do something about the inner cities" (in 1987). The response this time will be more urgent, but will it be more effective...?
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