Until a few days ago, Birmingham and nine other cities were quietly drifting towards a little-noticed vote on whether they should have a directly-elected mayor. Initial expectations were that most cities would say "no".
But with less than five weeks to go until the vote on 3 May, it now looks like quite a lot of those ten cities could say "yes" - which would trigger a series of mayoral elections on 15 November, and possibly a bunch of Parliamentary by-elections after that.
Last month, a Populus poll for BBC West Midlands showed that 59% of Birmingham voters were unaware of the imminent referendum. But, weirdly, just over half thought Birmingham should have an elected mayor. The picture was similar across Yorkshire, where Leeds, Sheffield, Bradford and Wakefield are all voting: 62% of Yorkshire voters did not know about the referendum, but 53% said they would vote "yes". So, without really knowing anything about it, most people intuitively support the idea of an elected mayor.
This is something of a shock. For years, the main parties have been telling us that voters don't want an elected mayor. Despite the success of the London mayoralty, cities like Manchester and Leeds have not been that interested. High-profile fans like Michael Heseltine and Andrew Adonis have been banging the pro-mayoral drum for ages, but apparently to little effect.
Now, it looks like quite a few cities are up for a mayor:
- Birmingham was always the most likely to vote "yes" - that's now even more likely, following Liam Byrne's announcement last week that he will stand (on a joint ticket with former leader Albert Bore). Former Labour MP Sion Simon has been the frontrunner until now. Gisela Stuart is also in the running. Whoever wins the Labour nomination will probably become mayor.
- Liverpool will have its own mayor in May, after a Council "yes" vote earlier this year. Labour leader Joe Anderson is in pole position, unless Phil Redmond throws his hat in at the last minute. Salford is also due to pick its mayor in May. And Leicester has already got one.
- Bradford was an unlikely contender until now - but George Galloway's surprise win could change that. MP Galloway said yesterday he was "fully behind" the plan for more elected mayors, and his Respect party would put up "high-profile" candidates in Bradford and other cities.
Technically, the likelihood of a "yes" vote is pretty strong, because the wording of the referendum question is I think pitched in favour:
"How would you like [your city] to be run? By a leader who is an elected councillor chosen by a vote of the other elected councillors. This is how the council is run now. OR By a mayor who is elected by voters. This would be change from how the council is run now."
Politically, the chances of a "yes" vote are quite high too. Either because well-known MPs are now putting themselves forward, lending credibility to the mayoral model. Or because voters are so fed up of the mainstream Westminster parties that they want to elect their own maverick leader.
Every MP that is elected mayor (or police commissioner) will trigger a by-election this autumn/winter. Labour stands the best chance of winning these mayoral elections, but after the Bradford West result, Ed MIliband and co will be nervous about a flurry of by-elections.
Local politics just got interesting.
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