Dermot Finch

Conference wrap-up

So that's it for another year: I've left the secure zone, taken off my lanyard and said goodbye to Manchester. Am now thinking: did the party conferences change anything for Clegg, Miliband and Cameron?

I reckon the Lib Dems did better than expected, Labour worse and the Conservatives emerged unscathed. Here's why.

Clegg went into Birmingham fearing the worst, expecting some crowd trouble. But he didn't get any. It was a bit like the last episode of Blackadder, leading his troops over the top - except nobody fired. Maybe he'll go down fighting in 2015, but he survived conference - and created some space for Lib Dems to remain in Coalition, and criticise the Tories.

Miliband needed to make an impact in Liverpool. He did that alright, but in the wrong way. His speech was thoughtful, and did contain a decent theme about corporate responsibility - but it came across like an anti-business think tank pamphlet. A former Cabinet minister told me the whole week had been an "overwhelming disaster". Miliband needs to recover quickly, starting with a bold reshuffle of his shadow cabinet. He will also need to explain his New Bargain more clearly.

Cameron delivered just about enough today. When you're in a hole, reach for the optimism script - call on the British Bulldog spirit, and cross your fingers things will turn out OK. That's basically what he did. By far the most significant announcement was Osborne's, on credit easing - more details on that in his 29 Nov Autumn Statement. If credit easing works, Cameron could be off the hook - if it doesn't, his optimism will backfire.

Overall, though, this was an off-year at conferences. After the excitement of pre- and post-election, this year was always going to be relatively low-key and flat. Given the economy is so dodgy, the Coalition parties decided to keep their heads down and plough on. And given it's only a year into Opposition, Labour just wasn't ready to unveil anything new and substantive.

Roll on 2012.

Party conferences - who are they for?

I'm in the main hall for David Cameron's finale in Manchester, at the end of three long weeks at all three party conferences - my seventh season on the trot. And am wondering: who are party conferences for?

There's a quiet but growing debate about this, on the conference circuit. Here at Conservatives, Fraser Nelson has been complaining that fringe events are packed full of lobbyists instead of party members. Peter Bingle was on the Today programme yesterday, defending all those lobbyists (including me, I suppose).

Some facts: of the 11,000 people at Tory conference, around 4,000 are party members - the rest are public affairs, media and journo types.

More party activists would attend if it were free, but conference passes (and hotels) are quite pricey - the total package is about a grand. Normal people would sensibly rather go to Crete or Florida instead.

One of the consequences is that conference fringe events don't quite capture the full flavour of party sentiment. Questions to panellists can come from constituency members, but they could equally come from the likes of me and other corporates.

I can see why this frustrates Fraser Nelson and others. I'd argue that the balance is about right between party, media and corporates - apart from those heavy-handed campaigners or lobbyists who drone on too long. I get much more frustrated by rubbish AV equipment - see my earlier posts on that.

There is a genuine question to ask about party conferences, and that is whether they should be held every year. Some journalists are already proposing US-style pre-election conventions instead, especially after this year's rather flat and non-eventful season. I doubt whether the parties themselves would go for this.

Riding out the storm

George Osborne speeches are now something of a tradition at Conservative conference - and part of the tradition is a recurring catchphrase.

Two years ago, it was "we're all in this together". Today, the Chancellor catchphrase was "together we will ride out the storm". I'm not sure whether that's progress - Osborne still wants us to stick together, but the weather appears to have got worse.

The storm clouds gathering over the Treasury are big and dark. Weak growth, euro crisis, credit squeeze, rising unemployment, high inflation, and more.

Osborne's policy response today was threefold: a clear no to further new spending (even though he's found £800m to freeze council tax again); a promise of "credit easing" to finance business growth (the most significant announcement, more details to come from Treasury); and a bunch of supply-side measures including planning reform and more apprenticeships.

There wasn't much new in all this. Two extra enterprise zones, some rather optimistic new housing numbers, and freezing council tax for another year (which he promised in 2008). Credit easing could help to unlock business finance, but we need to see more detail first.

While Labour was deliberately policy light last week because they need more time, Osborne today tried to be policy heavy in the face of another gathering economic storm. But the real game changers lie outside the conference hall - the fate of the euro, a recovery in bank lending and consumer confidence.

More annoying things...

...about fringe events at party conference.

I feel compelled to continue my rant about microphones not working. Almost every event here has been beset by technical problems. Even Ed Miliband's speech.

Sunday's Progress Rally was an audio calamity. Chair Lorna Fitzsimons had to contend with a very lively microphone that knew no bounds - screeching one minute, falling off its perch the other. No wonder Liam Byrne threw caution to the wind, and spoke without the aid of electronic enhancement.

Steve Richards' interview yesterday with Ed Balls started off fine, but came to an abrupt halt when Ed's volume suddenly increased one hundred fold. My row visibly jumped.

And today, an IPPR event took the AV biscuit. For about 10 minutes, Nick Pearce and his panel had to compete with a rival event being piped through the sound system. I was watching Gavin Kelly talk about the squeezed middle, but hearing some woman discuss the spectre of concreting over the green belt. All very confusing.

This isn't just Labour's problem. I fully expect similar audio challenges in Manchester next week. Could we get a grip, please?

Oh and two more annoying things:

(4) Audience members who can't ask questions. Despite their best efforts, panel chairs are often unable to prevent certain people from delivering mini speeches. Channel 4's Cathy Newman yesterday failed to impose her 20-second rule, as numerous delegates droned on for ages. May I suggest a buzzer or small bell, for chairs to use at will.

(5) "Could you please show your appreciation in the usual way." At the end of fringe events, chairs sometimes say this as a cue for the audience to clap. Which is very odd. I would have thought a simple "thank you" would suffice. Showing your appreciation in an unusual way could be funny, though.

Bargain Britain - Miliband's vision

Ed Miliband needed to explain three things today: who he is, why he should be PM, and Labour's vision for Britain.

He's got an uphill climb on all three fronts. Pollsters Populus say that 49% of his own party can't imagine him as PM. His numerous policy reviews are a year away from completion. And most of the public still blame Labour for many of Britain's ills.

So how did he do? Alright - not brilliant, and not a disaster.

On the personal stuff, we now know a bit more about him, Justine and the boys. He's thoroughly decent, he tells it straight. And he did tell a few good jokes, especially about that nose job.

But I'm not sure the "outsider" bit worked. Yes he went to a comp in Camden, and he's less privileged than Cameron (not difficult) - but the Miliband brothers are more insider than out.

Ed told us he aspires to be our Prime Minister. But the immediate reaction this afternoon is sceptical, and tomorrow's headlines are unlikely to champion his cause. As I left the conference hall, Jon Snow & Michael Crick were doubting Miliband's potential - and the predictable critics (Tim Montgomerie, Iain Martin) were writing him off.

Miliband set out his New Bargain for Britain - his version of FDR's New Deal, I suppose. Rudely interrupted by a power cut (I blame David), he railed against predators and Tory tax cuts - and reclaimed the NHS (to a standing ovation).

But I'm not convinced "New Bargain" will endure as his defining theme. It feels like a passing phrase, no matter how many times he repeated it. And it was offset by too many other bitty bits - not the first time a leader has tried to cram too much into a conference speech.

His most important line was this: "Waiting for the Tories to fail won't win us the election." Too true. Which means he needs to set out a credible alternative. That will take time, but Labour needs to get on with it - and not just rely on the other lot slipping up.

Annoying things about fringe events

Here are three things that annoy me about party conference fringe events.

(1) Microphones not working. This nearly always happens, and not just at fringe events. Is this a British thing? Politicians can no longer talk about the need for a modern, innovative economy while we struggle with AV.

(2) Jokes about sitting on the left or right of panel line-ups. Last week it was Danny Alexander on the far right, this week it's Tessa Jowell on the far left. This isn't funny any more, and yet it nearly always gets a laugh. We need better jokes at fringe events.

(3) People who need no introduction. Chairs of fringe events quite often introduce MPs by saying they need no introduction - and then they introduce them. There are only a few people who genuinely need no introduction - HM The Queen, Lady Gaga and Nelson Mandela. Liz Kendall and Ed Davey aren't quite in that bracket, yet.

More annoying things will no doubt occur to me, as party conference season continues...

Three tips for Labour

Here are three tips for Labour, as they start their conference here in Liverpool: (1) get noticed, (2) get used to coalition, and (3) get clear on your growth plan.

One of Labour's main tasks this week is to stay on top of the headlines. The escalating euro crisis could shunt them down the news agenda. Ed Balls tomorrow and Ed Miliband on Tuesday need to capture and connect with the public's growing concern about the deteriorating economy. The risk is that they are sidelined by external events.

Labour should tone down its attacks on coalition government per se. As Alan Johnson observed this morning, Labour could find itself in coalition after 2015 - especially if majority governments become a thing of the past. Too often over the last year, Labour has scoffed at the compromises that are required in coalition. The party would be wiser to get used to coalition, and plan for uneasy alliances with the Lib Dems from 2015 - perhaps their best hope of government next time.

The weak economy, on one level, should be good news for Labour. But on its own, low/slow growth will not deliver a Labour victory. There's rather too much thinly disguised glee at the state of the economy, and not enough clear answers. Reducing VAT back to 17.5% will not be enough to turn things around, nor will a permanent levy on bank bonuses. More targeted concrete policies are needed, such as reducing Employers' National Insurance on hiring young people.

Lib Dem chat

Very revealing chat with senior Lib Dem this morning, who's close to Clegg (guess who).

Clegg and co were expecting a pretty hostile reception in Birmingham. All the build-up media comment had been negative, and the economy seems to be going backwards again - so they were bracing themselves for real trouble.

In fact, the delegates have been more supportive than expected. Cable's doom and gloom speech was greeted with respectful applause. Clegg's Q&A triggered no major protest.

One year into the Coalition, the Lib Dems realise they are unpopular - but they're not taking it out on Clegg. No leadership challenger is anywhere close to emerging. No-one senior is saying they shouldn't be in Coalition.

But there is plenty of debate about what they should do with their time in Coalition - and how they can be more distinctive from the Tories.

Those closest to Clegg are now playing the long game. Virtually immune to the current polls, they are increasingly fixed on 2015 - by when they hope to have dug themselves out of their electoral crater.

Of course, this strategy might not work: "The Coalition could destroy us. But at least we would be going down fighting." Quite a gamble.

Cable & Richards

Just seen Steve Richards interview Vince Cable. Three standout points:

Before being stripped of his media regulation powers, Cable reminded us that he did refer News Corp's BSkyB bid to Ofcom. Had he not done so, the takeover would have gone through before Xmas - well ahead of the hacking scandal. (He got a lot of applause for that.)

Asked whether he would consider running for the leadership, if Clegg stood down, Cable was adamant he would not. He launched into an avalanche of praise for the "extremely effective" Nick Clegg - and (rightly) pointed out that there is no leadership chatter whatsoever at this conference.

On the economy, Cable echoed the doom and gloom of his platform speech: "We are in very dangerous terrain." And, like Danny Alexander yesterday, he said that the 50p income tax rate was not permanent: "There's nothing inviolate about it." He said it could be withdrawn during this Parliament, if a suitable version of the mansion tax could be found - he said that would raise £2bn a year.

Dr Doom & Gloom

That was a very gloomy speech from Vince Cable just now. And quite a feat of political positioning. Instead of claiming to have fixed the deficit and sorted out growth, Dr Cable managed to win acclaim for admitting that things are worse than he first thought. The Business Secretary's tactic seemed to be scaring his audience into applause - and it worked. "These are dangerous times...The immediate threat is a lack of demand...The next few years will be difficult...We are a poorer country after the crash." The audience didn't exactly love it, but they did keep clapping on. Politicians normally play to the gallery at party conference, by unveiling a few new policies and setting out a shiny new vision. Not Dr Cable. He made a virtue today of being downbeat and miserable. Call it the Morrissey approach to politics. He did have a go at both Labour and Tories, at deficit deniers and rabid tax cutters ("Pull the other one") - but there was very little grandstanding, and rather a lot of gloom. Looks like the road to recovery will be paved with potholes rather than gold.